Is Black Friday Still Worth It?
At headline level, Black Friday looked strong again this year. Online sales climbed, with reports showing growth of about 9-10% compared to last year, while in-store sales rose only modestly at around 2%. Adobe recorded record online spend on both Thanksgiving at 6.4 billion dollars and Black Friday at 11.8 billion dollars. Even with economic uncertainty in the background, shoppers did not hold back. But a closer look complicates the picture.
Salesforce found that order volume actually dipped by about 1% year over year, while average selling prices rose by 7%, pointing to inflation as a likely driver of those record totals. So, the demand was there, but the forces behind it were not as straightforward as the top line numbers suggest.
Even with the market’s growth, our own client data tells a more grounded story.
What the Data Shows
Catapult data shows that overall sales across the Black Friday to Cyber Monday window ended up almost identical to last year. Media-driven sales followed the same pattern, yet reaching that same level of performance cost roughly 20% more. That is a meaningful jump for the same outcome.
Some of this cost pressure is structural. Amazon continues to cement itself as the default starting point for shopping, which concentrates competition in one place. At the same time, more of that shopping now happens on mobile apps, often with AI quietly shaping the journey. Smaller screens and guided entry points simply expose people to fewer ads. Every impression becomes more contested, and every search becomes more expensive real estate.
None of this changes the fact that Black Friday can still deliver volume, but it does change what it takes to win that volume.
Shifting Timelines
The other clear shift: shoppers moved earlier, and sales pulled forward compared to last year.
- People bought in the first days of the extended period and held back during the main event, even though total sales across the full stretch stayed level.
- When deal periods stretch to almost two weeks, the moment of highest intent comes sooner than expected.
- Brands that wait for the “real” Black Friday weekend to show up with meaningful activity are meeting customers who have already made up their minds.
So, is Black Friday still worth it? Yes, but not by default. The event still concentrates demand, and consumers clearly remain willing to spend. But the return is increasingly tied to timing, budget posture, and channel behavior rather than the calendar date itself.
The Early Bird Gets the Sales
The early window is becoming the true opportunity. Showing up early in the period gives brands first claim on undecided shoppers before competition peaks and media prices climb. Relying on the traditional Friday-to-Monday surge leaves money on the table, because that surge is flattening.
The rising cost of media also changes how budgets need to work. Planning for steady visibility over the full extended window is more effective than holding spend for a single spike that no longer exists. And with mobile and app-based shopping reducing available ad exposure, it becomes more important that every touchpoint carries real weight.
Black Friday still pays off. It just rewards a different kind of readiness now. That is where Front Row steps in: finding the placements that matter, structuring budgets around the moments that convert, and making sure the early wave does the heavy lifting. If you have any questions, reach out and let's have a chat.