Is Black Friday Still Worth It?
At headline level, Black Friday looked strong again this year. Online sales climbed, with reports showing growth of about 9-10% compared to last year, while in-store sales rose only modestly at around 2%. Adobe recorded record online spend on both Thanksgiving at 6.4 billion dollars and Black Friday at 11.8 billion dollars. Even with economic uncertainty in the background, shoppers did not hold back. But a closer look complicates the picture.
Salesforce found that order volume actually dipped by about 1% year over year, while average selling prices rose by 7%, pointing to inflation as a likely driver of those record totals. So, the demand was there, but the forces behind it were not as straightforward as the top line numbers suggest.
Even with the market’s growth, our own client data tells a more grounded story.
What the Data Shows
Catapult data shows that overall sales across the Black Friday to Cyber Monday window ended up almost identical to last year. Media-driven sales followed the same pattern, yet reaching that same level of performance cost roughly 20% more. That is a meaningful jump for the same outcome.
Some of this cost pressure is structural. Amazon continues to cement itself as the default starting point for shopping, which concentrates competition in one place. At the same time, more of that shopping now happens on mobile apps, often with AI quietly shaping the journey. Smaller screens and guided entry points simply expose people to fewer ads. Every impression becomes more contested, and every search becomes more expensive.
This year, we saw that Black Week performed better in North America than in Europe, but there were still strong variances across regions. Major countries like Germany, the UK, and France drove the most traffic, but newer markets like Belgium and the Netherlands showed the largest year-on-year increases, though from a smaller base.
None of this changes the fact that Black Friday can still deliver volume, but it does change what it takes to win that volume.
Shifting Timelines
The other clear shift: shoppers moved earlier, and sales pulled forward compared to last year.
- People bought in the first days of the extended period and held back during the main event, even though total sales across the full stretch stayed level.
- When deal periods stretch to almost two weeks, the moment of highest intent comes sooner than expected.
- Some brands saw up to 70% of their revenue come from the first day alone.
So, is Black Friday still worth it? Yes, but not by default. The event still concentrates demand, and consumers clearly remain willing to spend. But the return is increasingly tied to timing, budget posture, and channel behavior rather than the calendar date itself.
Customer Lifetime Value (CLV) Over Single Event Profitability
As deal periods stretch longer, it's smart to think beyond short-term profitability. The increasing role of Customer Lifetime Value (CLV) is especially crucial. Brands can now leverage tools like Amazon Marketing Cloud (AMC) to assess the long-term value of customers acquired during these deal events.
While "deal hunter" customers may seem low-margin initially, they often repurchase during subsequent sales events, increasing their lifetime value. This trend is especially relevant in categories like beauty, household, and even consumer electronics, where repeat purchases are key to sustained growth.
More Insights
For more insights on the topic, check out the Let's Talk Marketplace podcast episode where Benjamin Weyrich, Managing Director at Front Row, chats with Ingrid Lommer and shares his expertise on the topic.
The Early Bird Gets the Sales
The dynamics around Black Friday have shifted. It’s no longer about waiting for the weekend rush, but rather being present early and staying consistent throughout the entire deal period. Getting the timing and budget right makes all the difference in seeing real results.
Black Friday still pays off. It just rewards a different kind of readiness now. That is where Front Row steps in: finding the placements that matter, structuring budgets around the moments that convert, and making sure the early wave does the heavy lifting.
If you have any questions, reach out and let's have a chat.
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