What Incrementality Looks Like in 2026

The era of chasing return on ad spend alone is coming to an end. As retail media matures, incrementality, understanding what’s truly additive to growth, is the new performance frontier. Instead of tracking linear cause-and-effect, brands must now think in loops, not lines: each campaign touchpoint connects, amplifies, and interacts with another to influence a shopper’s path to purchase.

When measurement focuses solely on ROAS, the story remains incomplete. Incrementality exposes the unseen: new customers acquired, unassisted conversions, and channel synergies that linear models simply overlook. 

Incrementality in Action: Monster & Coca-Cola

The most sophisticated brands already understand that growth happens through connected incrementality in a dynamic system where upper- and lower-funnel channels work together instead of in silos. Our team helped Monster Energy link sponsored video with retailer search placements to test how awareness content fuels conversion behavior within the same ecosystem. Similarly, the team lifted Coca-Cola’s integrated campaign by tying co-branded on-site banners to keyword targeting, creating measurable loops that revealed not only which ad drove the sale, but also how the combination expanded share.

Attribution Overlap & Category Benchmarking  

Incrementality testing also depends on understanding category context. Baselines matter; a 19% year-over-year online growth in Germany’s beverage sector, for instance, reframes what counts as “incremental.” Without category-aware benchmarking, over-attribution becomes a hidden risk.

Coca-Cola’s test-and-learn approach offers a useful model: align attribution frameworks early to prevent cannibalization between retailer media, brand media, and organic performance. The process involves three disciplined steps:  

1. Define category growth baselines and brand benchmarks.  
2. Split test overlapping channels with budget safeguards.  
3. Reallocate spend dynamically based on validated incremental lift.  

This model ensures budget decisions reflect contribution, not duplication. 

Building Measurement Maturity  

Every brand sits somewhere on the measurement maturity curve:  

• Reactive: Focused solely on ROAS visibility, limited to short-term outcomes.  
• Proactive: Incorporates multi-channel attribution and shared retailer insights.  
• Predictive: Uses advanced analytics platforms (like Catapult) to forecast incremental impact across a rolling window.  

The journey from reactive to predictive shifts how teams think, moving from campaign metrics to contribution metrics. The deeper the measurement capability, the closer a brand gets to understanding true ROI from every retail media dollar. 

The Future of Incrementality Testing  

The next phase of retail media measurement will redefine transparency. Clean rooms, retailer APIs, and unified cross-platform measurement will let brands evaluate incrementality across retailer networks, programmatic platforms, and owned digital environments with greater precision.  

As Q1 2026 planning begins, one truth is clear: brands that measure better, grow better. True incrementality emerges when brands test across multiple touchpoints, comparing isolated versus connected campaigns. 

• Lay a solid foundation: Create a strong strategy and a granular campaign structure that set you up for scalable success.
• Think full-funnel: Cover every stage of the shopper journey, connect the dots with retargeting and drive loyalty via Subscribe & Save.
• Keep it open: Monitor other platforms, react quickly to trends, test boldly, and shift budgets and focus to capitalize on external trends.
• Target with purpose: Apply contextual and audience targeting, and structure campaigns across generic, brand, and competitor.
• No channel wins alone: The loop is where growth compounds.

Explore our website to see more of how our Retail Media team measures what really moves the needle, and contact us today to start your partnership.